41st Edition
During my working career I would routinely write a newsletter in late December or early January sharing my outlook on the economy and stock market for the upcoming year. If you are anticipating a such an edition, my apologies, but I no longer consider myself qualified to offer economic or market predictions. But that doesn’t mean I don’t have a few thoughts about what might transpire in 2024. So, here goes…
The first topic that comes to mind as I contemplate the new year is adaptability. I think it has long been one of the overriding strengths of our country. Individuals, local communities, and society at large, continually adapt to new challenges, ideas, and technologies. During this process we complain, cope, strategize, and compete. Very little in our country remains static. Arguably, we live in the most dynamic country in the world. Naturally, given this ever-changing environment, we have to take the good with the bad. Change can create new opportunities, but it can be very disruptive to established business practices and social norms. Legend has it that Winston Churchill once said, “Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else.” Being adaptive is in our DNA and continues to be evident today. Why does all this matter?
There is a presidential election in November. Both sides will assert that this is the most important election of our time. Beyond that, pundits will proclaim that if their candidate doesn’t win, it will be the end of the world as we know it, whatever that means. Whatever the outcome, disappointment, protest, or civil unrest is likely. Then the country will adapt and move on as it always does. People will likely vote based on some concept or opinion related to a myriad of factors, including: a candidate’s character or personality, his or her stance on one or two sensitive social issues, party ideology, or a candidate’s potential policy platform related to domestic, economic, and foreign policy. I’m sure there are other determinants, but I think these are the primary ones. What gets lost sometimes is that in America we can vote for whomever we
want for whatever reason, or even no reason at all. It’s a sacred thing, really.
Like it or not, developments regarding the election will remain the leading news story throughout the year. Naturally, people will find different ways to adapt to the never-ending, contentious political rhetoric. How? Some will completely tune out, which may be the healthiest thing to do, but others will find new ways to dialogue and debate. Long term, this is a much better approach as challenges or polarizing issues are rarely resolved without meaningful conversation.
Meanwhile, the country is going to continue to wrestle with how to utilize, as well as control, the game-changing and disruptive technology called Artificial Intelligence. AI will impact virtually every industry as well as our education system as it relates to how we teach critical thinking and prepare students to compete in an AI-driven economy. Here is an interesting quote from James Pethokoukis, (Senior Fellow DeWitt Wallace Chair Editor, AEIdeas Blog) who encapsulates the incredible potential from AI quite eloquently –
“AI might eventually equal or surpass human intelligence, innovate on its own, and drive economic hypergrowth, leading to a Singularity scenario that seems like science fiction today. But this progress could carry existential risks. If AI surpasses human intelligence without aligning with our goals, some worry it could pose a threat greater than nuclear weapons. These suggested risks have prompted important discussions on the direction of AI research and deployment.” All I can add to that is, Yikes!
On a related note, there will be increasing pressure on colleges and universities to improve their valuation proposition. More individuals and families will realize that the return on investment is becoming more difficult to justify, given the exorbitant cost of a higher education. The pushback by major donors, against social indoctrination and the absence of free speech, will also lead to change within our colleges and universities. Moreover, graduates will likely face different hiring criteria, as corporations evaluate the quality and output of higher education.
The most worrisome issue for 2024 may be the continued retreat by the United States from the world stage. Whether it turns out to be escalation in fighting in the Mid East, or military provocations in Asia, the absence of the U.S. as a strong, peace-keeping force throughout the world is not going to end well. Any serious student of history realizes the imminent danger of the U.S. becoming weaker militarily and more isolated, while totalitarian regimes do what they have always done, which is to provoke geopolitical tensions.
It has long been my custom to end each newsletter on a hopeful note. Perhaps it is time to make a few hopeful predictions in a less serious arena like sports. Who might win The Masters, the World Series or the Final Four? Again, my apologies, because I am no longer qualified to do so. (perhaps I never was…) The utterly absurd amounts of money athletes are paid today, including those in college, has sullied sports for me. I seldom watch anymore. But I still have some great memories. And maybe our memories, or at least our awareness of timeless lessons from our extraordinary history, can guide our future actions as we adapt to whatever happens in the new year. There is hope in that, isn’t there?
Please help me grow my readership by forwarding this to a friend(s). In the meantime, say tuned for my next newsletter. Thanks
Michael Kayes
*These views are my personal opinions and are not the viewpoints of any company or organization.